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Never traded brent for binary options traders who wouldn't? Forex market is an international money market. Forex formed its name from foreign currency exchange operation: FOReign EXchange, or FOREX, for short. Calculate JPY to PHP - Calculate Japanese Yen .. Forex Rate. www. forexratenow. Calculate JPY to PHP Forex rate now gives you the up- to- date exchange rates with forecast and charts for convert Japanese Yen to Philippine Peso, (calculate JPY to PHP). My views on the market, tech, and everything else. Murray Gell- Mann is a theoretical physicist and was the winner of the Nobel Prize for Physics in 1. Gell- Mann is a Professor of Theoretical Physics, Emeritus at Caltech and a Distinguished Fellow at the Santa Fe Institute, which he co- founded in 1. Caltech writes: “Gell- Man earned his Ph. D in physics at MIT and went on to study at Princeton under Oppenheimer, has devoted his scientific career to finding the ultimate elementary building block of matter, a search that has been compared to looking for the bottom of a well extending into infinity. The quest for the bottom of the well has led Gell- Mann through an Alice- in- Wonderland world of ‘strangeness’ and the ‘eightfold way’ to the wondrous ‘quark.’” A New York Times profile describes the range of his skills and interests: “He is a director of the John D. Catherine T. Mac. Arthur Foundation, member of the Council on Foreign Relations, adviser to the Pentagon on arms control, collector of prehistoric Southwest American pottery, amateur ornithologist, to name a few.” He is the author of the book The Quark and the Jaguar: Adventures in the Simple and the Complex.“Any entity in the world around us, such as an individual human being, owes its existence not only to the simple fundamental law of physics and the boundary condition on the early universe but also to the outcomes of an inconceivably long sequence of probabilistic events, each of which could have turned out differently.” “The fundamental law does not tell you exactly the history of the universe, but only gives probabilities for a gigantic number of alternative histories of the universe.” Perhaps the most important lesson I have learned from Gell- Mann is phrased perfectly by Howard Marks: “Many futures are possible, but only one future occurs.” In making that statement Marks gave a hat tip to Elroy Dimson who said: “Risk means more things can happen than will happen.,” but I imagine both he and Dimson have read Gell- Mann. Marks embellished on this idea further by saying “the future should be viewed not as a fixed outcome that’s destined to happen and capable of being predicted, but as a range of possibilities and, hopefully on the basis of insight into their respective likelihoods, as a probability distribution.” This idea that the future is should be viewed as a probability distribution was made even more valuable for me when I combined it with Charlie Munger’s ideas about the value of knowing what you do not know. These ideas were made even more valuable by the ideas of Richard Zeckhauser, which were best brought to life for me by a wonderful paper entitled: “Investing in the Unknown and Unknowable.” I could go on identifying other related ideas from other people, but I think you see my point. When you encounter a really big idea and it is reinforced by ideas from other great minds, it becomes even more powerful and useful. “We live in a universe with an enormous amount of uncertainty. Quantum mechanical law can only give probabilities for alternative- different alternative histories of the universe. And all the things that are not predicted are nevertheless very important for determining the outcome. So that the particular events of the history of the universe are co- determined by the fundamental law and a whole series of intrinsically unpredictable accidents.” “Quantum mechanics gives us fundamental, unavoidable indeterminacy, so that alternative histories of the universe can be assigned probability.” “Sometimes the probabilities are very close to certainties, but they’re never really certainties.”Gell- Mann’s point about inevitable uncertainty makes me think harder about the right way to make decisions in the presence of uncertainty. I like Zeckhauser’s definition of uncertainty, which makes clear that when potential states of the world are unknown, probability is not computable (ignorance) and that probability cannot be calculated if you do not know probably distribution (uncertainty). Almost all of life is uncertain since the probability distribution impacting the future is rarely known with certainty. Howard Marks talks about these ideas in the context of investing is his latest letter: there are two things I would never say when referring to the market: “get out” and “it’s time.” I’m not that smart, and I’m never that sure. The media like to hear people say “get in” or “get out,” but most of the time the correct action is somewhere in between. Investing is not black or white, in or out, risky or safe. The key word is “calibrate.” The amount you have invested, your allocation of capital among the various possibilities, and the riskiness of the things you own all should be calibrated along a continuum that runs from aggressive to defensive. In one of two posts I have written on Marks I quoted him as saying: “The future you get may be beneficial to your portfolio or harmful, and that may be attributable to your foresight, prudence or luck. The performance of your portfolio under the one scenario that unfolds says nothing about how it would have fared under the many ‘alternative histories’ that were possible.” This point is fundamentally important since, as Michael Mauboussin points out, “Investing is a probabilistic exercise. In any probabilistic field, you have to recognize that even great decisions won’t work out all of the time, and sometimes poor decisions will work out well.” Nobody can be right all the time, but a person can learn to be wrong less often and in that process gain an investing edge. In other words, we can learn to have a better investing process even though we can’t be right all of the time. The more humble you are about making predictions in environments involving uncertainty and the more you include a margin of safety in making these decisions, the better off you will be. I don’t think that the first word that comes to mind when anyone describes me would be humble, but I try to be very humble about what I can predict. Another point made by Zeckhauser that is important is his emphasis on portfolio optimization as a skill needed by investors. The case of venture capital is an extreme example in the investing world, since “among the very top performing VCs, 4. In predicting things one always has only partial information.” “The existence of our galaxy, the development of our particular star, the sun, similarly depend on accidents, fluctuations that are intrinsically unpredictable. The emergence of the particular planets of our solar system, likewise. The details of the development of life on the Earth, likewise. The evolution of particular forms of life, likewise, depend on utterly unpredictable accidents.”Gell- Mann’s ideas about unpredictable accidents are applicable in many contexts. For example, what Gell- Mann is talking about should make you more aware that if you are in favorable position in life a lot of that outcome is based on luck. People who ascribe moral superiority to themselves when outcomes are as based on luck as they are not being intellectually honest. Luck happens, both bad and good, and it has no moral dimension in terms of its outcome. The only moral aspect is related to the lucky giving back to the unlucky. As another example, Gell- Mann’s point reinforces the arguments Lean Startup advocates make about the value of conducting experiments using the scientific method in building a business or investing. If evolutionary outcomes depend on unpredictable accidents, then experimenting to test the evolutionary fitness of an idea is wise (another forms of portfolio optimization). The products and services created through this experimentation process that have greater fitness survive, and less- fit products and services die. Entrepreneurs have always experimented when creating or altering a business. What is different today is that modern tools and systems allow experiments to be conducted more cheaply and rapidly than ever before. Evolution has been put on steroids and is as a result faster and more powerful.
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